Toliet Paper Shortage

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The truth about the ongoing toilet paper shortage is elusive, but actually makes a lot of sense. The panic triggered by an irresponsible media’s attempt to gain political advantage in the headlines caused some people to stockpile certain nonperishable items. One sinister person tried to hoard hand sanitizer for profit and was prosecuted by the authorities, but purchasing twice or three times more toilet paper than one normally uses is not a crime. A run on toilet paper and totally empty shelves caused additional stockpiling as soon as new stock arrived. The panic buying was always easy to understand, but why couldn’t supply eventually catch up with demand?

The paper industry is comprised of a several very large manufacturers. It is an integrated industry such that wood pulp and recycled fibers can be made into any number of paper products. The process and equipment used is this industry is maintained in a rather small number of mills located around the country. These plants are massive and filled with large expensive heavy mills, presses, and related equipment to manufacture and form the ultimate products from copy paper, boxboard containers to tissue paper products. To construct a new plant would be a massive and long undertaking, but more importantly unnecessary.

The secret to this phenomenon is in the supply chain. These products are not new, they have been made for a hundred years with little actual change. The quantity needed by the entire public is fairly consistent and has been reduced to a precise calculation many years ago. Therefore, the manufacturers know exactly how much to produce and deliver to each retail outlet. The gradual increase in population and related consumption is easily compensated for within the industry through product mix and normal efficiencies and improvements. There is no oversupply, undersupply or excess inventory because that is expensive and unnecessary. It’s just like tugboats, there are only a limited number of navigable waterways in America. Long ago the optimum number of tugboats were constructed and because they are designed to last for a hundred years or more, none have been or will be built, just rebuilt and overhauled. 

Once all toilet paper supplies were consumed from the retail stores, the resupply could only continue at the predetermined rate. Since panic buying continued resupply was subject to ongoing hoarding. Eventually, when everyone has a closet full of toilet paper, the retail supply will reappear. However, the manufacturers know this and they do not want to have a shutdown in the future when everyone stops buying toilet paper. They have very little incentive or ability to address the current shortage in a quick manner. They know that what has been purchased will last until it is used and sales now will be offset by lower future sales. It takes a long time and huge area for a massive ship to turn around, even more so with the paper industry. The sand in the hourglass must trickle through to the bottom at a constant rate, it has been designed to do so for that purpose. The systems of supply and demand for commodities are fixed on a macro scale over time, it’s the most efficient way to get things done – it just makes sense.

Covid-19 Pandemic

I read a well-respected Minister’s analysis of prophecy from many different streams of the Church regarding this current international crisis and it’s origins. He concluded there was not a clear convincing and accurate prophetic message, as yet. I concur, and recognize that many believers do not even believe God speaks in such ways and/or to such matters today. I believe Scripture teaches that God communicates to His people through the Holy Spirit and the Bible. (John 16:30). What does seem much clearer is the representation of the enemy through lies, deceit, and what may be a basis for the Antichrist spirit in today’s society. Beginning with Marxist reasoning and the proliferation of associated humanistic secularism we see a more widespread, but less organized, attack upon the congregation of believers, Israel, and God’s influence around the world. Communists are the most devout promoters of secularism, but many spheres of Western culture (which includes western Europe), such as journalism, Science, Academia, Politics, and many smaller lesser known organizations, like Planned Parenthood, ACLU, Freedom from Religion, are also advocates of Secular Humanism. How does this rising wave of Secularism connect to the Covid-19 pandemic?

The media initiated a panic and politicization of this new virus strain which originated in China. Very quickly the Government began a response acquiescing to designate a few medical professionals as principle decision makers. Isolation was chosen as the best response. Then both Federal and State governments began over-reaching their authority in many and subtle ways. The Federal government closed business segments, State governments barred assembly and closed borders. Congress passed a bill to pay each Citizen/resident $1200 and whatever else is buried in its twelve hundred page bill. Much of this was unprecedented, unique and irresponsible. Government is not our parent or caretaker, but it is straining its constitutional boundaries. All this is flowing from the secular idea that medical science must lead all actions and responses to the Pandemic. Statistics, models, academic analysis and scientific research are controlling every facet of society, government and social behavior. The biased media is promoting government action to collapse traditional, constitutional freedom, free market economy, individual responsibility and most importantly, but unstated, Christian faith.

When I go to the doctor I most often follow their recommendations, but I have learned there is a limit to medical knowledge and practice, therefore, my trust for healing remains in God. One day a one-world government will emerge according to scripture. (Rev. 13: 7-18). This pandemic is paving the way for such a one world secular humanist system, one that can easily be ruled by the enemy and his Antichrist. (1 John 2:18; 4:3). This is fantasy to the worldly mind, but consider how outrageous our current socio/economic status would have seemed in December 2019. Prudence regarding contagious disease is called for, but panic, denial or rejection of faith in God, Government overreach, and Secular Humanism is more dangerous than we know.

In times of crisis there should be a call for divine mercy and help, a humble affirmation that we are not self-reliant, but trust in a merciful Almighty God. Where are the men of faith in America? Where are the people of God? Are there no Believers to speak God’s word? “When I shut up the heavens so that there is no rain, or command locusts to devour the land or send a plague among my people, if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.” (2 Chronicles 7: 13-14).